Q1 2026 commodity outlook: HRC, CRC and the Asia spread

The Asia HRC–CRC spread tightened in Q1 — what it means for Q2 contracting windows for buyers and EPCs.

Restocking, not real demand

Chinese steel inventories at port came down by 4.1 percent through February, partially absorbed by a delayed restock cycle that mills had pushed past the Lunar New Year. Contracted volumes from Korean and Japanese mills rose 6 percent month-on-month — but spot was the real story.

If you signed FY26 contracts on the December assumption, you are now paying through the nose for tonne-on-tonne flexibility.

What to do for Q2 contracting

• Lock in 60–70% of base volume on quarterly fix; leave the balance on monthly index
• Push for split-incoterm flexibility (FOB ↔ CFR) inside the same MOQ
• Pre-negotiate PPGI / PPGL paint-line capacity for monsoon-window deliveries