China's 2026 steel export shift — what CIF Mundra buyers should watch
China exported 111 million tonnes of steel in 2024 — a record. In April 2026, Beijing revised its export tax rebate policy, removing rebates on HRC, CRC, and hot-dip galvanised. For Indian buyers importing 4–6 million tonnes of Chinese flat products annually, the numbers just changed.
What actually changed
Chinese mills had been claiming a 13% VAT rebate on qualifying steel exports. That rebate has been withdrawn for most HRC, CRC and coated products in 2026. Net effect: Chinese FOB export prices need to rise by roughly $40–60/MT to hold the same mill margin — or mills absorb the loss and export volumes fall.
Landed cost, CIF Mundra
- Pre-shift CIF Mundra HRC: ~$540/MT (Q4 2025 avg)
- Post-shift CIF Mundra HRC: ~$580–600/MT (Q2 2026)
- Delta: 7–11% depending on freight window
Who's affected
- Direct importers of Chinese HRC/CRC — feel it first, ~1 shipment lag
- Indian mills (JSW, Tata, AMNS) — Chinese competition tempered, domestic HRC has room to rise $20–30/MT
- Downstream fabricators — margin compression unless spec passthrough is contractual
What to do
Lock in Q3 imports on pre-shift-priced contracts before June. After that, shift the volume mix towards domestic HRC and CIS-origin (Russia, Kazakhstan) alternatives — currently trading at $20–30/MT under China CIF.
The longer view
China's export withdrawal is not accidental — it's a controlled tightening as Beijing rebalances domestic supply with Belt-and-Road infrastructure spend. This is not a temporary policy dip. Expect further tightening on coated products through 2027.
