India's steel safeguard duty — three months in, who's winning

In April 2026 the Indian government imposed a 12% safeguard duty on flat steel imports for 200 days, aimed at curbing a surge of cheaper Chinese and Vietnamese HRC and coated coil. Three months in, the effects are clearer.

What the duty covers

• HRC, CRC, hot-dip galvanised, GI/GL — thicknesses 0.15–10 mm
• 12% ad valorem, on top of existing 7.5% BCD
• Exclusions: SEZ imports, specific grades not made domestically

What's happened to prices

• Domestic HRC (SAIL/JSW/Tata mill list): +₹2,800–3,500/MT (roughly 6–7%)
• Chinese landed CIF: +12% duty, partly absorbed by mill margin cuts
• Net domestic HRC vs landed Chinese: ~₹4,000/MT spread — importers still marginal on some grades

Winners

• Integrated Indian producers — JSW, Tata Steel, AMNS: higher realisation on domestic sales
• Secondary domestic mills — regional CRC / GI producers reclaim share
• MSME steel-service centres — regain competitive positioning against import-fed converters

Losers

• Downstream fabricators — appliance, auto tier-2, EPC: margin squeeze unless contracts allowed passthrough
• End buyers — 6–8% higher HRC-linked prices on finished goods
• Import-dependent processors — pipe mills, PPGI/PPGL paint lines relying on Chinese substrate

What happens at day 201

The safeguard sunsets in October. Historical precedent (2016 duty) says one of two outcomes: full withdrawal after DGTR review, or conversion to countervailing duties targeted specifically at Chinese origin.

Buyers should assume that duty relief is not a base case. Contracts running past October 2026 should not price in a return to pre-safeguard levels.